Standards

IETF

Meeting size charted by year, number of IETF meetings, and average meeting attendance during that year (physical attendance only, does not include those participating over the MBONE):
Year   # mtgs   avg attendance

1986    4          23.8
1987    4          70.0
1988    3         102.7
1989    4         147.3
1990    4         256.3
1991    3         369.0
1992    3         613.3
1993    3         589.0
1994    3         858.0
1995    3         869.0
1996    3       1,438.0
1997    3       1,508.7

Although there is no guarantee that the trend in IETF meeting size will continue or just what the trend is, the closest fits for various curves seem to be:

Power        Attendance = 19.227 * ( (year - 1985)**1.6976 )
Exponential  Attendance = 33.763 * e**( (year - 1985) * 0.3484 )
Quadratic    Attendance = (11.731 * year**2) - (46588.887 * year)
                             + 46256206
These equations predict the following IETF attendance in future years:
Year    Power    Quadratic  Exponential
R**2=  0.9808     0.9734      0.94

1998   1,496      1,809       3,129
1999   1,697      2,109       4,433
2000   1,907      2,432       6,281
2001   2,128      2,779       8,899
2002   2,359      3,149      12,609

Notwithstanding the slightly closer fit of the power curve, I would guess growth will be closer to the quadratic approximation.

(Donald E. Eastlake, July 4, 1998)

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Last updated by Henning Schulzrinne