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The following papers can be downloaded:
View from the Last Citadel - Limits to Knowledge in Anthropology, by Susan Skomal.
Cooperative Behavior in Simple and Complex Systems, by Joel Lebowitz.
Statistical Mechanics: A Selective Review of Two Central Issues, by Joel Lebowitz.
An ESSAY on the Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable, by Ralph E. Gomory.
At the Edge of Knowability: Towards a Prehistory of Languages, by Colin Renfrew.
Mathematical Platonism Reconsidered, by David Ruelle.
Varieties of Limits to Scientific Knowledge, by Piet Hut, David Ruelle, and Joseph Traub.
Gravitational Thermodynamics, by Piet Hut.
Limits to Knowledge in Population Genetics, by Michael Clegg.
On Contract Knowing: Notes Toward a Taxonomy of Foreclosed Inquiry, by Kim Hopper.
Sources of Predictability, by James Hartle.
Scientific Knowledge from the Perspective of Quantum Cosmology, by James Hartle.
Limits of Data and Interpretation in Genetics, Genetic Medicine, Evolution & the Origin of Life, by David Thaler.
Limits to Knowledge in Quantitative Genetics, by Michael Lynch.
Notes on the Limits to Knowledge, by Cesare Marchetti.
Revisiting data mining: `hunting´ with or without a license, by Aris Spanos.
Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems, by Simon Levin.
In Search of the Unknowable, by Joseph Traub.
Bayesian Analysis, by Andrew Solow.
Meeting Notes, by Jesse Ausubel.
References, by David Thaler.
Links:
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
The Hybrid Vigor Institute |
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AGENDA
Thursday 26 October |
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8:00 AM |
Continental breakfast |
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Registration |
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Session Chair: |
Joseph Traub |
9:00 AM |
Welcome, participant introductions, and purposes of the meeting, Joseph Traub, Columbia |
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Status and goals of Sloan programs, Jesse Ausubel, Program Director, Sloan Foundation |
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Remarks on limits to knowledge, Ralph Gomory, President, Sloan Foundation |
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General discussion |
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10:15 AM |
Break |
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10:30 AM |
Theme 1: Scaling and Simplification |
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Brief issues statement: System dynamics involve interactions among processes acting on diverse scales of space, time, and organizational complexity. Yet not every detail of interaction is important to "know" important behavior, and indeed many aspects, both macroscopic and microscopic, appear unknowable. At macroscopic scales, unknowable (?) stochastic perturbations can force systems, which will survive only if they are sufficiently adaptive to absorb and respond to these influences. At the microscopic scale, the multiplicity and complexity of interactions can make detailed knowledge impossible. To what extent in various fields do we have ways that enable us to scale from small to large and back, representing the dynamics of aggregates, for example, in terms of the statistical dynamics of populations of individual agents or units? What do we understand in various fields about how to define, identify, and suppress irrelevant detail?
Opening statements: |
15 minutes each |
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Ecology: |
Simon Levin |
Oceanography: |
Andrew Solow |
Mathematics: |
David McLaughlin |
Genotype-Phenotype Relationships: |
Michael Cummings |
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Discussion |
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12:15 PM: |
Lunch |
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Session Chair: |
David McLaughlin |
1:15 PM |
Theme 2: Data Limitations |
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In some fields, including parts of biology and physics, data come from controlled experiment, allowing close matching between theory and experimental results. Experimental design is, of course, subject to a multitude of biases that may limit knowledge. At least as important, in many fields and subfields, including cosmology, oceanography,macroevolution, and many social sciences, controlled experiments are impossible. What facts are obtainable represent samples of what we would like to know in ways whose biases themselves may be hard to know. For example, knowledge of classical history depends substantially on one man, Herodotus, and we do not know how additional accounts would change understanding of Greece, Persia, Babylon, and Egypt. Strongly socially constructed observations, accidental experiments, and often a spare historical record form much of the known. Systems may also be simply too large or long-lived to observe. At a theoretical level, what we see or live with may reflect bifurcations and the influence of frozen historical accidents, and represent one realization of stochastic processes that admit many possibilities. An example is the question of whether the genetic code is the only code possible in some broad sense.
Opening statements: |
15 minutes each |
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History of Science: |
Jed Buchwald |
Prehistoric Linguistics: |
Chris Scarre |
Anthropology: |
Kim Hopper |
Philosophy of Science: |
Deborah Mayo |
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Discussion |
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3:00 PM |
Break |
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3:15 PM |
Data Limitations (continued) |
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Economics: |
John Rust |
Computational Economics/Finance: |
Shyam Sunder |
Genetics: |
David Thaler |
Evolutionary Theory: |
Cesare Marchetti |
Cosmology: |
Piet Hut |
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Discussion |
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5:30 PM |
Adjourn |
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Reception and dinner |
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Friday 27 October |
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8:00 AM |
Continental breakfast |
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Session Chair: |
Simon Levin |
8:45 AM |
Theme 3: Formal Systems, Determinism, and Scientific Knowledge |
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From seminal papers of Goedel and Turing, the 20th century witnessed a stream of "impossibility" results, including undecidability, non-computability, and intractability. Although these results may limit knowledge, their significance or implications for what is unknowable in a range of fields remains unclear. Several results concern formal (mathematical) systems. Although science uses mathematics, it also differs from mathematics. Can we up the ante from Goedel's analysis of formal systems and prove impossibility results in specific areas of physical science? What about in fields of life sciences such as cellular and molecular biology, where reliance on modeling and formal systems remains much less? What about financial or political systems?
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Opening statements: |
15 minutes each |
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Computer Science: |
Joseph Traub |
Computational Biology: |
Marcelo Magnasco |
Genetics: |
Michael Clegg |
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Discussion |
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10:15 AM |
Break |
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10:30 AM |
Formal Systems, Determinism, and Scientific Knowledge (continued) |
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Opening statements |
15 minutes each |
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Mathematics: |
David Ruelle |
Empirical Evidence: |
Aris Spanos |
Quantum Mechanics: |
James Hartle |
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12:00 PM |
Lunch |
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Session Chair: |
Jesse Ausubel |
1:00 PM |
Public Conceptions and Misconceptions of the Known the Unknown, the Unknowable: Are There Important Issues for Public Understanding? |
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Discussants: |
Sarah Boxer, New York Times |
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Denise Caruso, Hybrid Vigor Institute |
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George Johnson, author, Fire in the Mind |
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Robert Pool, author, Beyond Engineering |
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2:15 PM |
Break |
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Session chair: |
Jesse Ausubel |
2:30 PM |
Final session: What Have We Learned? What Should Be Explored?
- Within the disciplines so far plumbed
- In other fields such as cosmology, demography, political science
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4:30 PM |
Adjourn |
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