THE TASTE OF SOUP

 

Or, Jesse's CHECKLIST for the Known-Unknown-Unknowable

(SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY)

 

 

COMPLEXITY  (STRATIFICATION, ROTATION)

SCALING

SIMPLIFICATION (PARAMETERIZATION)

HOW VARIABLES ARE SELECTED (SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION)

ROLE OF UNMEASURED VARIABLES (NO SIGNALS REACH US…)

WHAT FEATURES ARE CONSTANT

WHAT MATHEMATICAL FORMS ARE USED (DYNAMICAL)

ERRORS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS

QUALITY OF DATA, HETERDGENGITY

ERRORS IN FORECASTS OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES

EXTRAPOLATIONS BEYOND MEASURED RANGES

INTRINSIC VARIABLITY

EXTREME SYSTEM SENSITIVITY

“MANY ® ONE” PROBLEM

ACCESS TO MENTAL STATES

COST (LENGTH, TIME, $$)

WORKING BACK FROM SURVIVORS (“THE DISAPPEARED")

COMPUTATIONAL LIMITS

LIMITED REALIZATIONS, SMALL SAMPLES

TOO MUCH DATA

CULTURE, TABOOS, INHIBITIONS

CONTRACT KNOWING

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The GOOD NEWS

1) STATISTICAL DESCRIPTIONS, PROBABLITIES (in leu of  “DETAILED KNOWLEDGE”)

2)  DRIVES (EVOLUTIONARY)

             FOR DATA GATHERING

                   FOR DATA PROCESSING

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NEED FOR EFFICIENT FILTERS

\ BUILD ROBOT MATHEMATICIANS